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Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR - AL012014

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm ARTHUR - AL012014 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH3.3316.67
SHF512.66252.95
LGEM8.55120.11
SHIP11.17198.30
DSHP11.61212.29

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA3.335.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MADNA6.2411.8716.2318.0022.1121.2919.4012.338.00NA
LGEMMADNA5.768.3310.8512.8214.3315.1411.202.004.00NA
SHIPMADNA5.479.079.7711.3615.0018.8620.8019.3315.00NA
DSHPMADNA5.889.609.6211.3615.0018.8620.8019.3315.00NA
PIIHMSENA16.6725.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MSENA59.76191.07312.69426.73647.00708.71532.20165.6764.00NA
LGEMMSENA54.35104.20156.69216.09326.33339.43158.804.0016.00NA
SHIPMSENA47.71109.60162.54216.82315.67436.29510.00463.33225.00NA
DSHPMSENA60.47129.60155.15216.82315.67436.29510.00463.33225.00NA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 07/01/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF516.67427.11
LGEM11.00195.00
SHIP9.11124.22
DSHP9.11124.22

Forecasts for 07/01/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF521.50588.25
LGEM15.00290.50
SHIP9.38132.38
DSHP9.38132.38

Forecasts for 07/01/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF523.75717.50
LGEM19.00495.25
SHIP14.50251.75
DSHP14.50251.75

Forecasts for 07/01/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF512.71263.00
LGEM6.0066.86
SHIP8.86163.14
DSHP8.86163.14

Forecasts for 07/02/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF512.71265.57
LGEM8.86105.43
SHIP10.71253.00
DSHP10.71253.00

Forecasts for 07/02/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF510.83206.17
LGEM7.3384.00
SHIP9.50165.83
DSHP9.50165.83

Forecasts for 07/02/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF516.33376.00
LGEM11.00164.67
SHIP14.17292.50
DSHP14.17292.50

Forecasts for 07/02/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF514.00285.20
LGEM8.40112.80
SHIP10.20156.20
DSHP10.20156.20

Forecasts for 07/03/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF510.80171.60
LGEM8.8082.80
SHIP14.40355.60
DSHP14.40355.60

Forecasts for 07/03/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF513.25235.75
LGEM10.25138.25
SHIP11.50169.50
DSHP11.50169.50

Forecasts for 07/03/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF59.2597.75
LGEM5.2548.75
SHIP15.25404.25
DSHP15.25404.25

Forecasts for 07/03/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF57.3384.67
LGEM8.0066.00
SHIP14.67296.67
DSHP12.67242.00

Forecasts for 07/04/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF511.00173.67
LGEM4.0030.00
SHIP13.67255.00
DSHP13.67255.00

Forecasts for 07/04/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF511.00137.00
LGEM7.5056.50
SHIP10.50116.50
DSHP20.00409.00

Forecasts for 07/04/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF515.00226.00
LGEM7.0065.00
SHIP13.50182.50
DSHP13.50182.50

Forecasts for 07/04/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH0.000.00
SHF56.0036.00
LGEM2.004.00
SHIP6.0036.00
DSHP6.0036.00

Forecasts for 07/05/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF53.009.00
LGEM6.0036.00
SHIP4.0016.00
DSHP4.0016.00

Forecasts for 07/05/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 07/05/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.