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Tropical Cyclone TWO - AL022014

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm TWO - AL022014 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH7.2274.44
SHF54.1727.61
LGEM4.5639.56
SHIP6.5665.44
DSHP6.5665.44

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA5.007.2520.00NANANANANANANA
SHF5MADNA2.336.0011.00NANANANANANANA
LGEMMADNA2.336.7514.00NANANANANANANA
SHIPMADNA4.009.2517.00NANANANANANANA
DSHPMADNA4.009.2517.00NANANANANANANA
PIIHMSENA25.0057.25400.00NANANANANANANA
SHF5MSENA6.0039.00130.00NANANANANANANA
LGEMMSENA7.0051.75212.00NANANANANANANA
SHIPMSENA18.3390.75298.00NANANANANANANA
DSHPMSENA18.3390.75298.00NANANANANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 07/21/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.00182.00
SHF59.0097.67
LGEM11.33156.67
SHIP13.33206.00
DSHP13.33206.00

Forecasts for 07/22/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.33153.67
SHF55.0031.00
LGEM6.0046.67
SHIP9.0097.67
DSHP9.0097.67

Forecasts for 07/22/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.5030.50
SHF53.5014.50
LGEM3.5014.50
SHIP5.0029.00
DSHP5.0029.00

Forecasts for 07/22/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.5030.50
SHF53.5014.50
LGEM3.5014.50
SHIP6.0040.00
DSHP6.0040.00

Forecasts for 07/22/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF52.004.00
LGEM2.004.00
SHIP4.0016.00
DSHP4.0016.00

Forecasts for 07/23/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF52.004.00
LGEM1.001.00
SHIP2.004.00
DSHP2.004.00

Forecasts for 07/23/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 07/23/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.