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Tropical Cyclone FAY - AL072014

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm FAY - AL072014 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH8.4396.74
SHF56.8375.00
LGEM5.1356.46
SHIP5.2343.96
DSHP5.2343.96

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA6.008.7513.8310.256.00NANANANANA
SHF5MADNA4.505.889.0014.2513.00NANANANANA
LGEMMADNA4.805.135.339.00NANANANANANA
SHIPMADNA5.304.885.337.005.50NANANANANA
DSHPMADNA5.304.885.337.005.50NANANANANA
PIIHMSENA54.6085.50219.83135.2540.00NANANANANA
SHF5MSENA30.1052.38102.00222.75290.00NANANANANA
LGEMMSENA36.4052.6369.00193.67NANANANANANA
SHIPMSENA36.9036.8845.67106.0060.50NANANANANA
DSHPMSENA36.9036.8845.67106.0060.50NANANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 10/10/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.80186.80
SHF58.2079.80
LGEM17.75336.25
SHIP13.00183.00
DSHP13.00183.00

Forecasts for 10/11/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH9.2096.80
SHF515.40278.20
LGEM3.0013.50
SHIP1.604.40
DSHP1.604.40

Forecasts for 10/11/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.00154.50
SHF54.2539.25
LGEM4.5027.50
SHIP6.5047.00
DSHP6.5047.00

Forecasts for 10/11/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH9.50133.50
SHF56.7577.75
LGEM1.674.33
SHIP3.5014.50
DSHP3.5014.50

Forecasts for 10/11/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH3.3316.67
SHF54.6743.33
LGEM3.0011.00
SHIP2.006.00
DSHP2.006.00

Forecasts for 10/12/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0041.67
SHF56.0052.67
LGEM1.332.00
SHIP3.6713.67
DSHP3.6713.67

Forecasts for 10/12/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF55.0025.00
LGEM3.5018.50
SHIP5.0034.00
DSHP5.0034.00

Forecasts for 10/12/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.5062.50
SHF57.0053.00
LGEM5.5030.50
SHIP6.0036.00
DSHP6.0036.00

Forecasts for 10/12/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF510.00100.00
LGEM11.00121.00
SHIP10.00100.00
DSHP10.00100.00

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.00225.00
SHF51.001.00
LGEM0.000.00
SHIP1.001.00
DSHP1.001.00

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.