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Tropical Cyclone GONZALO - AL082014

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm GONZALO - AL082014 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH30.871310.12
SHF513.39402.97
LGEM13.38280.36
SHIP11.03179.41
DSHP11.25188.26

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA35.4138.7641.7432.7150.9528.4730.0727.6931.9126.67
SHF5MADNA6.4112.0017.5719.6220.6822.0624.1324.2320.4516.67
LGEMMADNA6.9312.2416.6518.2918.1619.4119.7317.7713.558.00
SHIPMADNA7.1511.4814.1314.5714.4713.7113.7311.927.459.22
DSHPMADNA7.1511.4814.1314.8614.7914.0614.1312.629.279.67
PIIHMSENA1605.331792.122031.741339.672905.051150.351470.871226.461240.09810.22
SHF5MSENA74.41216.80446.43595.90734.16889.941177.871219.62756.64347.78
LGEMMSENA86.33232.64387.00472.86473.00506.71533.47442.08256.82117.11
SHIPMSENA75.07191.88302.91316.95273.00269.82264.67184.5479.64111.44
DSHPMSENA75.07191.88302.91336.95296.37289.59283.87214.46120.18114.56

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 10/12/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH43.502259.90
SHF541.802109.20
LGEM26.30870.10
SHIP19.70520.30
DSHP23.60724.00

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH45.202365.00
SHF539.201894.40
LGEM21.50627.30
SHIP17.00401.40
DSHP17.00401.40

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH50.602854.80
SHF539.901835.10
LGEM28.10946.30
SHIP22.10603.30
DSHP22.10603.30

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH44.402161.80
SHF536.701556.70
LGEM25.00786.20
SHIP19.70480.30
DSHP19.70480.30

Forecasts for 10/13/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH39.201700.40
SHF530.201017.20
LGEM20.40511.80
SHIP16.40306.20
DSHP16.40306.20

Forecasts for 10/14/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH40.201850.80
SHF520.80513.20
LGEM14.10267.90
SHIP10.90141.50
DSHP10.90141.50

Forecasts for 10/14/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH38.201770.20
SHF512.70221.70
LGEM9.90147.50
SHIP7.2081.80
DSHP7.2081.80

Forecasts for 10/14/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH38.701783.90
SHF513.20252.60
LGEM11.70195.50
SHIP7.3084.50
DSHP7.3084.50

Forecasts for 10/14/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH36.701676.90
SHF513.00253.40
LGEM14.60262.40
SHIP8.2095.60
DSHP8.3096.30

Forecasts for 10/15/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH34.441713.78
SHF59.22142.78
LGEM11.67217.44
SHIP8.56110.78
DSHP9.33125.56

Forecasts for 10/15/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH35.001669.89
SHF57.89116.33
LGEM13.67259.00
SHIP7.7884.89
DSHP8.78102.78

Forecasts for 10/15/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH33.751716.50
SHF57.75109.00
LGEM13.50250.75
SHIP9.00125.75
DSHP9.13127.38

Forecasts for 10/15/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH31.001543.50
SHF57.3893.63
LGEM13.13215.63
SHIP8.0086.50
DSHP8.0086.50

Forecasts for 10/16/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH35.001737.57
SHF511.86217.00
LGEM16.57354.29
SHIP12.14196.43
DSHP12.14196.43

Forecasts for 10/16/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH31.571504.71
SHF55.2937.86
LGEM10.86164.86
SHIP9.43112.57
DSHP9.43112.57

Forecasts for 10/16/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH34.001453.00
SHF55.6748.33
LGEM6.0075.00
SHIP11.50181.83
DSHP11.50181.83

Forecasts for 10/16/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH34.671360.00
SHF57.1761.17
LGEM6.3376.33
SHIP12.50175.83
DSHP12.50175.83

Forecasts for 10/17/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH29.601022.00
SHF56.8075.60
LGEM6.0073.20
SHIP12.80221.60
DSHP12.80221.60

Forecasts for 10/17/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH27.40841.80
SHF55.4045.00
LGEM6.8082.40
SHIP11.20145.20
DSHP11.20145.20

Forecasts for 10/17/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH23.75606.25
SHF56.5058.50
LGEM7.2583.25
SHIP9.25106.75
DSHP9.25106.75

Forecasts for 10/17/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH18.25397.25
SHF55.2532.25
LGEM7.5087.50
SHIP8.5090.50
DSHP8.5090.50

Forecasts for 10/18/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH18.33341.67
SHF53.3312.00
LGEM8.33107.00
SHIP5.6743.00
DSHP5.6743.00

Forecasts for 10/18/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.00241.67
SHF51.674.33
LGEM9.67147.67
SHIP6.0068.67
DSHP6.0068.67

Forecasts for 10/18/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH17.50312.50
SHF511.00122.00
LGEM15.50260.50
SHIP10.00109.00
DSHP10.00109.00

Forecasts for 10/18/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.50162.50
SHF55.0026.00
LGEM15.00250.00
SHIP9.00106.00
DSHP9.00106.00

Forecasts for 10/19/2014 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.00225.00
SHF53.009.00
LGEM13.00169.00
SHIP8.0064.00
DSHP8.0064.00

Forecasts for 10/19/2014 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.00100.00
SHF54.0016.00
LGEM9.0081.00
SHIP10.00100.00
DSHP10.00100.00

Forecasts for 10/19/2014 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 10/19/2014 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.