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PIIH Predictions for Hurricane - Atlantic Basin

This page compares PIIH predictions for the current season with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. For comparison we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over all storms (running average) and averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future).

Model Errors on Named Storms for Season (Running Averages)

MADMSE
PIIH19.01629.35
SHF513.76325.01
LGEM10.64193.97
SHIP11.25213.94
DSHP10.63185.28

Model Errors on Named Storms for Season by Forecast Period (Running Averages)

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA13.6917.2421.1416.9628.6819.3421.9119.2020.4119.55
SHF5MADNA6.0110.2113.5715.6617.3518.6919.8920.8120.8021.48
LGEMMADNA5.358.2910.9413.0614.3014.6913.7513.3413.4312.87
SHIPMADNA5.658.6310.9713.3415.4715.9515.4614.4614.3414.03
DSHPMADNA5.197.9610.4112.7514.6214.6714.6914.2813.9913.84
PIIHMSENA416.28534.15719.83496.141275.32597.44752.54618.33606.87477.18
SHF5MSENA64.00168.00281.70391.37470.65539.25579.74616.30583.48565.44
LGEMMSENA48.16111.80186.36259.53306.24321.71298.75290.37285.52264.93
SHIPMSENA54.76122.67193.64273.53343.07372.29354.16300.77309.27311.71
DSHPMSENA43.64100.32168.29239.69291.48304.33306.61291.60286.18298.03

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.