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Tropical Cyclone ANA - AL012015

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm ANA - AL012015 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH9.22123.02
SHF58.53100.72
LGEM5.9651.83
SHIP6.4151.96
DSHP5.0036.81

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA5.787.009.809.0018.00NANANANANA
SHF5MADNA5.7810.4314.407.003.00NANANANANA
LGEMMADNA4.445.436.608.6714.00NANANANANA
SHIPMADNA4.786.296.405.6710.00NANANANANA
DSHPMADNA4.114.865.405.6710.00NANANANANA
PIIHMSENA62.0083.57136.2097.67324.00NANANANANA
SHF5MSENA52.67142.43225.2065.679.00NANANANANA
LGEMMSENA33.5634.5759.0079.33196.00NANANANANA
SHIPMSENA34.5646.0056.4033.67100.00NANANANANA
DSHPMSENA29.2228.8639.4033.67100.00NANANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 05/08/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH6.8078.00
SHF510.40154.80
LGEM6.2055.40
SHIP5.4036.20
DSHP5.4036.20

Forecasts for 05/08/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH4.0026.50
SHF512.50188.50
LGEM5.7537.75
SHIP5.2529.25
DSHP5.2529.25

Forecasts for 05/08/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.0066.50
SHF510.00126.00
LGEM7.5067.50
SHIP6.0048.50
DSHP6.0048.50

Forecasts for 05/09/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH6.6798.00
SHF54.3341.67
LGEM5.6759.67
SHIP4.0034.00
DSHP4.0034.00

Forecasts for 05/09/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH9.00129.67
SHF56.0060.00
LGEM6.0048.67
SHIP6.0052.67
DSHP4.3324.33

Forecasts for 05/09/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.0085.00
SHF54.5026.50
LGEM3.0010.00
SHIP5.0029.00
DSHP2.506.50

Forecasts for 05/09/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH13.50202.50
SHF510.00104.00
LGEM6.5042.50
SHIP8.0068.00
DSHP5.5030.50

Forecasts for 05/10/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH14.00196.00
SHF513.00169.00
LGEM12.00144.00
SHIP11.00121.00
DSHP11.00121.00

Forecasts for 05/10/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.00225.00
SHF56.0036.00
LGEM1.001.00
SHIP7.0049.00
DSHP1.001.00

Forecasts for 05/10/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 05/10/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.