IDA@SMU Banner

Tropical Cyclone BILL - AL022015

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm BILL - AL022015 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH13.25221.50
SHF515.63330.88
LGEM3.1319.38
SHIP15.75334.50
DSHP2.7524.25

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA9.2518.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MADNA10.7519.50NANANANANANANANA
LGEMMADNA4.251.00NANANANANANANANA
SHIPMADNA10.2522.00NANANANANANANANA
DSHPMADNA4.250.00NANANANANANANANA
PIIHMSENA141.25325.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MSENA234.25386.50NANANANANANANANA
LGEMMSENA31.751.00NANANANANANANANA
SHIPMSENA213.25485.00NANANANANANANANA
DSHPMSENA42.250.00NANANANANANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 06/16/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH9.50146.50
SHF58.50144.50
LGEM1.001.00
SHIP10.50220.50
DSHP0.000.00

Forecasts for 06/16/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.50182.50
SHF511.00242.00
LGEM5.5050.50
SHIP11.50264.50
DSHP6.0072.00

Forecasts for 06/16/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH14.00196.00
SHF519.00361.00
LGEM1.001.00
SHIP18.00324.00
DSHP0.000.00

Forecasts for 06/16/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH19.00361.00
SHF524.00576.00
LGEM5.0025.00
SHIP23.00529.00
DSHP5.0025.00

Forecasts for 06/17/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 06/17/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Back to Main

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.