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Tropical Cyclone CLAUDETTE - AL032015

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm CLAUDETTE - AL032015 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH6.7548.75
SHF55.8869.13
LGEM5.1341.88
SHIP5.2539.75
DSHP5.2539.75

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA6.509.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MADNA5.2511.50NANANANANANANANA
LGEMMADNA6.005.00NANANANANANANANA
SHIPMADNA5.756.00NANANANANANANANA
DSHPMADNA5.756.00NANANANANANANANA
PIIHMSENA44.5081.00NANANANANANANANA
SHF5MSENA49.75174.50NANANANANANANANA
LGEMMSENA52.5050.00NANANANANANANANA
SHIPMSENA42.7561.00NANANANANANANANA
DSHPMSENA42.7561.00NANANANANANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 07/13/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.5072.50
SHF515.50246.50
LGEM11.50134.50
SHIP11.00121.00
DSHP11.00121.00

Forecasts for 07/14/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.5072.50
SHF55.0025.00
LGEM2.008.00
SHIP3.0013.00
DSHP3.0013.00

Forecasts for 07/14/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF51.001.00
LGEM3.009.00
SHIP3.009.00
DSHP3.009.00

Forecasts for 07/14/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.0025.00
SHF52.004.00
LGEM4.0016.00
SHIP4.0016.00
DSHP4.0016.00

Forecasts for 07/14/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 07/15/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.