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Tropical Cyclone ERIKA - AL052015

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm ERIKA - AL052015 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH10.49184.86
SHF514.32302.69
LGEM7.62107.85
SHIP6.9380.41
DSHP6.7675.87

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA5.537.1310.158.6411.4414.5718.8028.6736.00NA
SHF5MADNA6.249.8712.0815.5519.7823.1427.0038.0051.00NA
LGEMMADNA5.476.336.237.2710.3310.5714.2031.0050.00NA
SHIPMADNA4.886.405.777.458.567.8611.0022.3337.00NA
DSHPMADNA5.186.075.547.368.567.8611.0022.3337.00NA
PIIHMSENA51.6575.13211.23130.64173.00266.29479.60876.671296.00NA
SHF5MSENA54.94150.93175.00329.55456.44607.43737.401450.002601.00NA
LGEMMSENA35.0058.8763.77103.82136.33211.14274.20989.672500.00NA
SHIPMSENA29.4759.3355.15104.5594.78128.43145.80513.671369.00NA
DSHPMSENA31.1853.0052.00101.0094.78128.43145.80513.671369.00NA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 08/25/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH19.56535.56
SHF525.00779.00
LGEM26.33836.11
SHIP20.78491.89
DSHP20.78491.89

Forecasts for 08/25/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.13312.88
SHF517.38403.88
LGEM13.63254.88
SHIP11.00154.50
DSHP11.00154.50

Forecasts for 08/25/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.8896.88
SHF518.00443.25
LGEM7.0099.75
SHIP4.8848.38
DSHP4.8848.38

Forecasts for 08/25/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.7187.86
SHF58.00128.00
LGEM6.2946.00
SHIP4.5729.43
DSHP4.5729.43

Forecasts for 08/26/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.7151.43
SHF510.57208.00
LGEM8.0070.29
SHIP6.5752.00
DSHP6.5752.00

Forecasts for 08/26/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH6.0046.67
SHF59.83161.83
LGEM6.3350.67
SHIP6.0044.33
DSHP6.0044.33

Forecasts for 08/26/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.17143.17
SHF518.33458.33
LGEM4.3338.67
SHIP3.8328.17
DSHP3.8328.17

Forecasts for 08/26/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.40123.00
SHF514.20289.00
LGEM3.0020.20
SHIP3.6025.20
DSHP3.6025.20

Forecasts for 08/27/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.8071.00
SHF512.00233.60
LGEM3.8024.60
SHIP4.6035.40
DSHP4.6035.40

Forecasts for 08/27/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH14.50309.00
SHF516.75334.75
LGEM6.5052.50
SHIP6.7560.75
DSHP6.7560.75

Forecasts for 08/27/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH18.75522.25
SHF520.25511.25
LGEM8.0083.50
SHIP10.25140.25
DSHP9.50124.50

Forecasts for 08/27/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.3348.67
SHF56.3357.67
LGEM6.6756.00
SHIP4.6728.67
DSHP5.0033.67

Forecasts for 08/28/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH5.3385.33
SHF58.33107.67
LGEM6.6751.33
SHIP5.3334.00
DSHP6.3341.00

Forecasts for 08/28/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.50102.50
SHF514.00260.00
LGEM4.0017.00
SHIP4.0025.00
DSHP5.0029.00

Forecasts for 08/28/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH13.50212.50
SHF519.50452.50
LGEM5.0026.00
SHIP8.0080.00
DSHP5.5030.50

Forecasts for 08/28/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH13.00169.00
SHF514.00196.00
LGEM5.0025.00
SHIP8.0064.00
DSHP5.0025.00

Forecasts for 08/29/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH15.00225.00
SHF511.00121.00
LGEM9.0081.00
SHIP5.0025.00
DSHP6.0036.00

Forecasts for 08/29/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 08/29/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.