IDA@SMU Banner

Tropical Cyclone LARRY - AL122015

This page compares PIIH predictions for storm LARRY - AL122015 with models currently used by the National Hurricane Center. To compare model accuracy we use Mean Average Deviation (MAD; average absolute prediction error) and Mean Squared Error (MSE; mean squared prediction error). We report the errors here as averages over the whole storm, averages per forecast period (12 to 120 hours into the future), and by individual prediction.

Average Model Errors

MADMSE
PIIH6.4875.02
SHF54.5138.81
LGEM4.8046.73
SHIP4.8937.33
DSHP4.8937.33

Average Model Errors by Forecast Period

ModelMeasureX0X12X24X36X48X60X72X84X96X108X120
PIIHMADNA4.007.7011.0013.0010.2511.00NANANANA
SHF5MADNA3.674.605.756.179.258.50NANANANA
LGEMMADNA3.584.907.257.0015.007.00NANANANA
SHIPMADNA3.584.006.758.509.503.50NANANANA
DSHPMADNA3.584.006.758.509.503.50NANANANA
PIIHMSENA26.6782.50150.00177.67151.75121.00NANANANA
SHF5MSENA19.6738.8068.2564.50128.2578.50NANANANA
LGEMMSENA19.2542.3096.2598.67225.0049.00NANANANA
SHIPMSENA16.4227.4070.0089.17101.5012.50NANANANA
DSHPMSENA16.4227.4070.0089.17101.5012.50NANANANA

* MAD: Mean Average Deviation, MSE: Mean Squared Error

Forecasts for 11/09/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.50132.83
SHF57.6769.67
LGEM10.00114.33
SHIP6.8354.50
DSHP6.8354.50

Forecasts for 11/09/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.17164.50
SHF514.17217.83
LGEM16.50295.50
SHIP11.00136.33
DSHP11.00136.33

Forecasts for 11/09/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH7.6092.00
SHF52.207.00
LGEM2.759.25
SHIP2.608.20
DSHP2.608.20

Forecasts for 11/09/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.20122.20
SHF52.8010.80
LGEM2.5011.50
SHIP4.2028.60
DSHP4.2028.60

Forecasts for 11/10/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH10.00105.00
SHF55.7539.75
LGEM4.5024.50
SHIP5.7534.75
DSHP5.7534.75

Forecasts for 11/10/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH12.25158.75
SHF52.005.50
LGEM2.005.00
SHIP5.2555.25
DSHP5.2555.25

Forecasts for 11/10/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH8.3391.67
SHF51.674.33
LGEM2.6721.33
SHIP4.3330.33
DSHP4.3330.33

Forecasts for 11/10/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH1.678.33
SHF52.336.33
LGEM4.6723.33
SHIP4.6742.00
DSHP4.6742.00

Forecasts for 11/11/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH2.5012.50
SHF53.5014.50
LGEM3.5018.50
SHIP4.5026.50
DSHP4.5026.50

Forecasts for 11/11/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH2.5012.50
SHF59.0081.00
LGEM3.5012.50
SHIP2.506.50
DSHP2.506.50

Forecasts for 11/11/2015 12:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH0.000.00
SHF50.000.00
LGEM5.0025.00
SHIP4.0016.00
DSHP4.0016.00

Forecasts for 11/11/2015 18:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIH0.000.00
SHF53.009.00
LGEM0.000.00
SHIP3.009.00
DSHP3.009.00

Forecasts for 11/12/2015 00:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Forecasts for 11/12/2015 06:00 GMT

MADMSE
PIIHNANA
SHF5NANA
LGEMNANA
SHIPNANA
DSHPNANA

Back to Main

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank James Franklin (Hurricane Specialist Unit, NHC, NOAA) and Dr. Mark Demaria (NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, CIRA) for their help.

NSF This work is based on TRACDS sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-0948893.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.